What's the best value on tonight's slate?
Looking at tonight's 11 games, the strongest edge I see is Ohtani O 1.5 TB at +115. My model has him at 54% true — that's a +7.5% edge vs implied 46.5%.
Quick reasoning: facing Logan Webbwho allows a .342 xwOBA to LHH this year, Dodger Stadium wind blowing out to LF (8 mph), and Ohtani's 94th-percentile barrel rate the last 15 days.
Also flagging Skenes O 7.5 K— line has moved from 7.0 but 80% of tickets are still on the over. Sharp money agrees; my number is 8.4.
Blend those two with Judge HR?
Sure — 3-leg combo payout at +1,847. My model true prob is 6.8% vs implied 5.1%, so there's still a +1.7 EV edge but it's thinner than the singles.